United Airlines Is So Unsure About the Economy It Offers Two Profit Scenarios

United Airlines Holdings Inc. took the unusual step of offering not one but two possible earnings scenarios, saying its 2025 outlook remains achievable but also warning that a recession could nearly halve its profit forecast.

The carrier Tuesday said it expects an adjusted profit of $11.50 to $13.50 a share if the current environment remains stable. Full-year earnings would drop to as little as $7 a share if the US economy enters a recession.

United’s shares rose 5.2% after the close of regular trading in New York, a sign of relief that the airline expects to make money even in an economic downturn. United’s stock had tumbled about 32% this year through Monday’s close, more than triple the drop in the S&P 500 in the same period. Rival carriers American Airlines Group Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc. also moved higher on Tuesday.

“Even in their downside scenario they’re talking about $2.6 billion worth of profit,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst George Ferguson, who added that he’s never seen a company give a multi-scenario outlook before. “That’s a pretty good downside. That doesn’t look like a horrible environment to me.”The airline industry’s lofty expectations for growth and profits this year have been cast in doubt as President Donald Trump’s trade war rattles consumers, businesses and markets. Delta last week withdrew its 2025 financial guidance due to global trade uncertainty and waning confidence among consumers and businesses that has “flat-lined” revenue growth. The parent of Frontier Airlines also withdrew its full-year profit outlook due to the murky economic environment.Trump’s rapid trade policy shifts — slapping tariffs on countries and goods before granting relief soon after — have made it difficult for companies to forecast demand and earnings with any precision.

The macroeconomic environment “is impossible to predict this year with any degree of confidence,” United said in an investor update as it reported first-quarter financial results.

Read More: Tariff Chaos Creates ‘Information Vacuum’ in Stock Market

United’s decision to offer two profit forecasts highlights why it’s important “to think in terms of multiple scenarios for internal planning and not just stick to the usual,” Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, said in a social media post.

While volatile trade policy has stoked concerns about demand, United said bookings remain stable. Premium cabin sales over the last two weeks were up 17% while international grew 5% year over year. The carrier’s first-quarter adjusted profit of 91 cents a share topped Wall Street’s expectation for 74 cents.United also said adjusted profit in the current quarter will be $3.25 to $4.25 a share, compared to the $3.97 average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Still, deep government job cuts and changing border policies by the Trump administration have already cut into bookings for domestic trips. United said it will reduce that flying by four percentage points starting in the third quarter and will continue trimming some flying on low-demand days going into the fourth quarter. The airline earlier said it would retire 21 planes earlier than originally planned.

US carriers are now waiting to see if the delayed imposition of some tariffs will calm concerns and avoid a downturn in lucrative premium and long-haul international flights.